jueves, 28 de mayo de 2009


POWER AND STRENGTH

It is not to say that the weak state is a new issue. To elucidate the concept of weak state one might go as far back as Thucydides and the notorious Melian Dialogue stressing that the "strong do what they have power to do and the weak accept what they have to accept". A concept equalizing a state's power with its strength is the leitmotif through the long life of realism in international relations theory or the "power-politics" school of thought. Its focus is on the (nation-) state as the principal actor in international relations, and since the purpose of statecraft is survival in an anarchic (hostile) environment, the main goal is the acquisition of power. Security is perceived as national security and war with another state as the main threat. The position and relative security of any weak state is gauged in term of the specific international system in which it is operating. The weak state is discussed within a comparative system: great powers, middle powers, weak states, mini states. The main characteristic of weak states is their lack of power or strength. Strength is a relative, not absolute phenomenon. The main criteria for distinction between small (i.e. weak) and strong states are military power and geographical position as internal sources of weakness, and formal alliances and weak state-great power relations as external sources of weakness. Also, weak states frequently produce only a limited number of products. There are various possibilities for great powers to exploit the position of weak states, which have fewer choices in decision-making.

The problem with this approach is that it is impossible to have a "concise, precise and elegant statement", that is, a definition. "A very large set of criteria must be used. Some are easily quantified, while others are highly intuitive and qualitative." The weak states form the largest class of states and have the most diverse membership – a fact which makes it still more difficult to assign them any common denominator other then overall relative weakness.

The total power of a state is its internal and external power combined. Military power is measured through " 'effective population', that is, the part of the population which can be armed and educated to operate modern sophisticated weapons", possession of nuclear weapons, economic, industrial and social capacity. The indicators used to determine this are population, Gross National Product, GNP per capita, military expenditure and quantity of armed forces, energy reserves, production and consumption. In terms of geographical position, location and nature of terrain are important, but also "border pressure" - the number of neighbouring countries with which a common border is shared, their relative population ratios, their military strength, and their political intentions.

This approach does not provide clear guidance for comparison of similar-size states. Strength is here discussed only in terms of possible external threats, military and economic, from the system and region level. Although it was mentioned that the strength is not static, many elements of strength are relatively fixed: population, geographic position, terrain and so on. The ratio between multiple criteria is not clarified, except that "on the whole, weak states score relatively low on most criteria".

When implemented in five states in Western Balkans, this approach is not particularly revealing. Albania, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Macedonia, and Serbia and Montenegro all are small states in terms of territory - less than 150.000 square kilometres, and in population – below 30 million. All five states have long borders, no nuclear weapons, low military expenditure, and no versatile production and export. In terms of external indicators, none of them is in NATO, that is in a formal alliance. There are some differences: Croatia has bigger GDP, Serbia and Montenegro the biggest territory and population, Albania the best terrain for defence, but there is no explanation as to which element has more weight. This concept includes many indicators without assigning value to them; hence it is too vague for finer comparison. Furthermore, there is no explanation as to how such permanent weakness becomes an acute security issue, except that it depends on great power politics.

Pound falls back against dollar


The pound capped a rise in recent weeks by hitting $1.60 on Wednesday for the first time since November last year.

But it fell to $1.5925 on Thursday as investors took profits and the dollar rose against a range of currencies.

The Bank of England's David Blanchflower warned that the worst of the global crisis may not be over.

My worry is that there can be many false dawns and we shouldn't assume that everything is over," he said in an interview with the Times newspaper.

Separately, a survey by the CBI provided more gloomy news on the UK economy.

The CBI's distributive trends survey said that UK retail sales had fallen by more than expected in May and that retailers were expecting a further deterioration next month.

But analysts expect the pound to remain strong as it rebounds from the 23-year low of $1.3620 against the dollar in January.

"The bullish momentum is stronger than it has been since December 2006," said Nicole Elliott of Mizuho Corporate Bank.

An early rally by the dollar also saw it strengthen against the euro. One euro dropped to $1.3867 from $1.3965 on Wednesday.

United "suffer" pain of defeat


Edwin van der Sar admitted that Manchester United FC were made to "suffer" at the hands of FC Barcelona as the goalkeeper reflected on failing to retain the UEFA Champions League trophy for the second time in his career.


The 38-year-old was part of the AFC Ajax sides that defeated AC Milan in the 1995 final before losing out to Juventus at the last hurdle the following year. This time around Van der Sar felt his team failed to do enough to become the first team to win the tournament in successive seasons, following their triumph over Chelsea FC in Moscow last May. "We wanted to win and hold on to the trophy," he explained. "In the first ten minutes it looked like we could do that as we had some shots on target while they looked a little nervous. After they scored we stopped playing. They gained in confidence and we never really got hold of the ball in order to play our own game."


The United No1 was picking the ball out of his net after just ten minutes following Samuel Eto'o's near-post strike, while Lionel Messi's second-half header made the game safe for Barcelona's treble winners. "We had a couple of chances and didn't take them," Van der Sar added. "At the end we were chasing the game, but they kept the ball very well and made us suffer. [After the game] the manager told us to look at ourselves and not to complain about other things."

Cristiano Ronaldo was quick to agree with his team-mate. "They played better than us and controlled the game," the 24-year-old said. "They created more opportunities and I think they deserved to win. We knew that making bad mistakes tonight would cost us and that proved to be the case. We started very well in the opening minutes but after that I didn't see much more of Manchester United."

jueves, 14 de mayo de 2009

Oil falls as demand 'set to drop'


The price of oil has fallen after the International Energy Agency said world oil demand would drop this year by more than at any time since 1981.
The price of US light crude oil fell by more than $1 a barrel to $56.86, while Brent crude dropped 74 cents to $56.60.
The IEA said demand for oil would fall by 3% this year compared with 2008.
On Wednesday, oil prices hit six-month highs, with US crude prices topping $60 on hopes that the worst may be over for the world economy.
"The oil price seems to have moved a bit higher in the past month largely on the basis of equity markets and sentiment rather than evidence of higher consumption," said David Fyfe, head of the IEA's Oil Industry and Markets Division.
The Paris-based IEA said demand would fall to 83.2 million barrels a day this year, 2.6 million less than in 2008.
The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) has implemented a number of production cuts in order to counter the fall in demand for oil and halt the slide in its price.
Oil prices hit a record of more than $147 a barrel in July last year.